Sunday, February 13, 2011

China's development benefits Southeast Asia



Summary:
Experts want Southeast Asian countries to consider the benefits that peaceful Chinese development brings to the region. Concerns exist from ASEAN countries (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) that China can put many local businesses at a disadvantage. But experts argue that competition will do more to complement the existing business as opposed to putting them out of business. The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Investment Agreement came into effect on Jan 1, 2010 and as a result many Chinese businesses have built plants in ASEAN countries. That's right, China is outsourcing! But that will create many jobs and in turn more tax revenue for the governments, with which they can use to improve infrastructure. The real concern comes from the fear that "a stronger China could push the United States out of regional affairs." As a sign of good faith, and to quell fears, experts suggest that China could help with things like disaster relief and epidemics that occur in Southeast Asia. A more unlikely suggestion is that China also increases military exchanges with Southeast Asian countries.
Significance:
This new development is a great step in opening up all of East Asia, not just China, with the rest of the world. If all goes according to plan, China and the ASEAN countries will see a new trend of globalization that will make them a lot more powerful economically on the global scale, not to mention the local level. But this will also mean that international factors will have more influence in the region which has equal potential for harm as it does good. In its current state though, China only stands to gain from this free trade agreement and the only way that it could be hurt by it is if the countries China invests in collapse due to China investing in them. The potential for irony is killing me. But again, the intended purpose of the free trade agreement has the ability to decrease regionalism in Southeast Asia, or maybe do away with it altogether in the more distant future.

As China's economy grows, concerns are raised about whether it can be sustained


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Summary:
As China prepares to rocket past Japan to become the world's second largest economy, concerns abound in growing economic powerhouse that the growth might not sustainable in the long term and that some people are more equal than the vast majority. Real estate prices are climbing at an incredible rate, with average apartment cost in the industrial city of Wuhan being 29 times the average salary. Wuhan, which is considered to be a fairly average city in China, has a booming economy, with local officials setting a goal for 12% annual growth during the next Five-Year Plan. The massive growth hasn't been without problems though. A grey haze caused by pollution hangs over the city and it is so thick one can't see the other the side when standing at the edge of the Yangtse River, which cuts through the city. Economists voice concerns that the growth maybe unsustainable and could potenially lead to economic collapse. They point out that local officials are more concerned with earning promotion and high growth rates look good. This prompts officials to pursue short term wins by buying up land and building infrastructure, but building up substantial debt in the process. And the officials don't have to worry about long-term consequences because they will likely not be around when the system comes crumbling down. Moreover, the lower rungs of society seem to be left behind as they struggle to support themselves among the rising costs of living. If the bottom falls out of the market, there is going to be a lot of very unhappy people in city of Wuhan and all over China.

Significance:
Wuhan's growth and the concerns voiced by economist represent a common concern throughout China. Despite the rapid fire growth, many in China and around the world wonder aloud whether the exponetial growth can be maintained into the long term. A stagnation of the economy in China would be disastrous and could potenially lead to regionalism and foreign interference, a situation all to familiar to anyone well versed in Chinese history. Time will only tell if China can maintain its unprecedent growth or face the consequences of a economic slowdown.

Chinese Premier Stresses Social Progress












Summary:


In a recent meeting in Xinhua, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao underscored the relative importance of math, science, education, culture, health, and sports fields in China. According to Premier Wen, "a country's prosperity not only lies in its economic development, but also its social progress." This meeting of the State Council, or Cabinet, was held on January 25, and was meant to report the country's economic and social development blueprint for the next Five Year Plan. According the the Premier, sports and culture have a great bearing on the welfare of the country and its future. Representatives from fields in math, science, and entertainment were invited to give suggestions at the meeting. Participants at the plenary meeting agreed that social development "had taken up an increasing proportion of the government work report in the past few years." In terms of education, much discussion was made about rural education and technological reform in such areas. Public cultural services and medical care options were introduced in regards to the rural areas of China as well.


Significance:


This article represents an interesting idea and notion that China is perhaps starting to become more modern, at least in terms of entertainment and social outlets such as sports. Although the Premier stressed math and science, he also talked about rural reform and innovation. This seems to be a major cleavage in Chinese society, as there are many differences between the urban Chinese and the rural farmers and villagers. Another such cleavage is represented in the cultural makeup of the people in rural areas; many are not of the traditional Han Chinese descent. What I found interesting, however, is that the government seems to be trying to bring the rural areas in closer to the big cities by means of providing them with reform and change. This seems like the opposite of devolution, and it certainly shows the strong unitary state which is China.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Pandas, please get your Nile Fever immunizations!

In a recent article on the World Socialist Web Site fears have been growing that the situation in Egypt is eerily similar to that of China in a certain Tienanmen Square in 1989. Though there is very little chance of open revolution in China, the author puts forth many parallels between the two situations, including media control, oppressive regimes, and a large economic gap (and neither country having an all panda government). The fear is that this event in Egypt will eventually spark a larger scale revolt in the PRC.


This affects domestic issues as a whole, as corruption in government, public discontent, media controls, and even the income gap are all addressed. It also works with Systems Theory, though with an international perspective: included in the input category is now foreign affairs. The stakes however, are different. If the government does not produce an appealing output, then we pandas may get the so called "Nile Fever", and revolt. And trust me. You don't want a panda revolt. They're...revolting. However, it would seem that the threat of a Chinese anti-governmental revolution may be in the minds of many, but very few will dare to stand against the government without any direct form of provocation.
 


Sunday, February 6, 2011

Guizhou Governor pledges to increase development in the backward province


Summary:
New governor of the Guizhou province, Zhao Kezhi, promises to improve the economy of the landlocked province. Zhao was transferred to Guizhou from the wealthy coastal Jiangsu province last year as part the development of the 12th Five-Year Plan. Despite the provinces 12 percent GDP growth over the last five years, the province remains one of the least developed in China, it ranks last in per capita GDP, and lags behind the rest of the country in terms of industrialization. Zhao says he plans to significantly expand the provinces infrastructure by adding 3,200 miles of railroad and 3,000 miles of highways, bringing the two transportation networks up to 5,000 and 4,500 miles, respectively. The governor also plans to take advantage of the provinces ample resources to speed up development. Zhao self stated goal, "The words 'poor' and 'slow-paced' should not be associated with Guizhou when we mention the province. We want to fix our image."
Significance:
Zhao's mandate to improve the poor province illustrates the inequality present in China between the industrialized coast and the agricultural interior, a rising point of contention in a nation still supposedly tied to the ideas wealth equality and redistribution. His success or failure in improving the lagging province could set a precedence among the Western provinces and their approach to economic development. It will also provide an example of the results a more proactive bureaucracy can have on the nation's economic development. Lastly, his efforts could alter the relationship between the coast and interior and how they interact with each other. All-in-all, the results of Zhao's transfere to Guizhou could be an interesting development in the rising economic powerhouse.

Guangdong business owners worried about succession



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Summary:

The owners of many private businesses are getting close to retirement and there is no one to fill their shoes. Their children don't necessarily want to be part of the business world and so they stray from it. In fact, 40.2% of private company owners in Guangdong sent their children abroad for school. By comparison, only 12.6% of private companies in Guangdong have been taken over by the owner's children. Additional statistics say that 51% of private business owners are afraid their children don't want to carry on the family business and 62% fear their children wouldn't be able to carry it on even if they tried. More than 800,000 private businesses exist but these were largely started in the 1970s and early 1980s so many of these people are now nearing retirement. The new generation doesn't want to have to handle the stress of business circles and this may stem from the fact that many in the new generation have attended college abroad. This schooling began even early for some, as far back as elementary school. There is a sliver of hope though as 13.4% the new generation born under the first generation of private business owners have started their own companies.

Significance:

This is a blow to privatization but it may also be good because the newer generation is bringing western ideas over. The west largely embraces capitalism so children that received their education in foreign lands will likely bring these ideals over to China. This also contributes to globalization a great deal as the new generation will have knowledge of the world far beyond what communist China allows in its schools. In the future this can only lead to becoming more connected with the rest of the world. So although some older businesses may go out of business, this does not mean that the idea of capitalism will end in China. What's more is that we can't expect China to become fully capitalist overnight, and if they did their economy would likely collapse because people would start demanding higher wages. These things need to happen gradually and the opening up policy that was started in the 1970s, combined with this new development, is clear cut evidence of that. Just the fact that there's any private businesses in a communist country is cause for celebration. Britain has one of the freest political systems in the world as a result of gradualism and now China must strive to the become the strongest economy in the world by means of the same process.

Chinese Manufacturing Slows In January 2011


Summary:
In an effort to lower prices in the manufacturing sector over the last year, Chinese government officials inadvertently decreased the expansion of the manufacturing sector and began to slow down its forward progress. This article cites the Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, to show how the manufacturing sector is slowing. In December, the PMI had dropped a dramatic 1.3% to remain shortly at 53.9. Now, it is barely hovering above the 52.9 mark, which is fairly low for a country such as China. Production, exports, and unemployment all dropped by 2%, but the prices of raw materials continued to be on the rise. According to a research analyst in China, these statistics are a good indication that the economy is slowing remarkably. In addition, China's Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, rose by 3.3% in the year of 2010. The federal government's intended target was around 3%. Mounting inflation pressure forced the People's Bank of China to adopt more tightening measures. The central government showed its strong arm in this issue by imposing tougher measures in cities where home prices are skyrocketing by increasing the minimum down payment requirement for the purchase of a second home. The Chinese see the positives in this situation, as they note that the current 10.3% economic growth is too high, and they want to avoid a boom and bust cycle at all costs.
Significance:
This article was very interesting in that the Chinese government is trying to eschew a rapid economic growth in favor of a slower, and more gradualistic increase in production, exports, and profits. The idea of a "strong state" is very much a part of this article and situation. The Chinese government is not afraid of stepping into the housing market or manufacturing sector to fix what it sees as problems. This also ties into the idea of a unitary state because the national government, not local or provincial governments, ultimately has the last say. Gradualism, this time in terms of economic growth rather than the formation of a democracy, is also very present in this article. The Chinese government does not want a boom and bust style of economy; instead, it wants a slowly growing, yet always prosperous and profitable economy. The government plays a big role in the development of this economy.